MARKET APOCALYPSE OVER? TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE(UPDATE)!
As Bitcoin finally fell into the $20,000 region in the early hours of today, the market has been thrown into full despair. Over $1.2b has been liquidated across the crypto markets in the past 24 hours. Many token prices have fallen by 90%, then another 90%.
Web3 companies are laying off staff, some others are getting/ or about to get margin calls.
The bears have gotten loud enough! And the markets have heard well!
Notorious for predicting the crypto apocalypse, traditional economists like Peter Schiff are having great fun sharing validating tweets and podcasts.
Is the Bottom “In” yet?
The question on the very lips of everyone right now - “is the bottom in yet?” “How low can we go?”.
A little over two weeks ago, I shared a deep dive on “where’s best to buy”. You can read it HERE.
In today’s newsletter, I want to share updated charts on the current market and what we should expect.
Technicals
BTC/USD
Bitcoin finally touched the 200 weekly moving average at approximately $22,400, falling even below it into $20,900 levels. The 200WMA has always been touted as a crucial bottom signal in every bear market. However, this does not mean that prices can’t fall below as we have seen from the early morning lows, even well reflected in the charts from previous bear bottoms.
From the chart above, one precise look at the diagonal lower trend line shows a possible gap that could be filled all the way down to approximately $18,000, should the price continue to fall over the coming days.
Areas of value on charts must never be seen as lines, but boxes, or areas as they are called. Entry precision is more peculiar to leverage traders as they are trying to avoid margin calls and stop losses. However, it is important that market participants who are more inclined to "investing" begin to take action (buy).
ETH/USD
Price fell and even wicked below the 200WMA at approximately $1196, which corresponds firmly with the top of the 2017 bull cycle. However, there’s still room for price to fall into the blue box, which corresponds with the February close and March open in 2018. That appears to be a sufficient level where bids will be filled up real quick.
ETH/BTC
This particular chart points out how much gap is left for Altcoins to bottom out. A fall in the ETH/BTC price does not necessarily equal a fall in the ETH/USD price but reflects how bad Ethereum and altcoins are performing against BTC.
The 200WMA is currently sitting at approximately 0.0407 BTC, which corresponds with the lower trendline conjunction.
At the time of writing, the price is currently at 0.053 BTC. Price will need to shed another 28% to get to the estimated bottom target.
While most Alts showed great strength against BTC’s recent collapse, it is important to pay attention to the gaps.
Bottom confirmation indicators
In addition to my technical perspective detailed above, I’m paying attention to bullish divergences on oscillators like RSI for when they begin to appear in mid-higher time frames.
Final thoughts
We’ve seen from previous cycles:
BTC starting a solo run
BTC and ETH making solo runs
BTC, ETH and mid-caps making solo runs
Alts making solo runs
It's about discerning which stage of the market we will head into next while keeping in mind that past events do not necessarily impact future occurrences.
Over the past several months of anguish amid falling prices, we’ve never been so close to finding a bottom than we are right now.
I’d love to leave one piece of advice, but who better to say it?
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